一 | While Germany's producer prices observe the biggest rise since records began in 1949, the index has also shown the biggest month-on-month increase, leaping 5.3% from June to July.,"The outlook for the further development [of the economy] is currently noticeably gloomy," and marked by "a high degree of uncertainty," Germany's Finance Ministry said in its August monthly report, quoted by Reuters.,"We have something like a tsunami coming," said Florian Josef Hoffmann, former president of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce East Thuringia and author of "Occupy Economics." "It’s calm water, everything goes slowly down. For example, furniture retail has completely stopped and other things are going down, too. Everything goes slower step by step. But the disaster comes, as I told you, in autumn. And that will be very bad. I can't imagine that this economy can easily survive this really critical situation.",Germans have been experiencing some pre-existing domestic problems as the government turned down nuclear and coal plants in order to switch over to gas and renewables, he noted. However, anti-Russian sanctions which included a sweeping energy embargo "create a real huge problem for the economy because it is based on the cheap Russian gas and now it's cut down by the own will of the government," according to Hoffmann.,"They cut down the gas import [from Russia]," he explained. "So the whole strategy of the past is ruined, and that's the problem. And that makes for great uncertainty because more or less the ship runs against the ice mountain. It's more than uncertainty; I see even the crash coming along for the German economy, not only because of these sanctions, but because of the consequences of the sanctions.",Energy Crisis in EuropeEU Will Not Replace Russian Gas in Full If Nord Stream 1 Remains Shut, Expert Says19 July, 18:20 GMT,The Russo-German chill started with Berlin suspending the Nord Stream 2 project on February 22, 2022. Moscow launched a special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine two days later, after the US, NATO and the EU defied Russia's draft security agreements envisaging ending the transatlantic military alliance's expansion and deployment in Ukraine.,In the aftermath of the operation, the US and its NATO allies have introduced several packages of sanctions. The EU pledged to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels before 2030, following in Washington and London's footsteps. In April, Brussels laid out targets to slash its demand for Russian natural gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022.,Western sanctions also complicated Gazprom's maintenance of the existing Nord Stream 1 infrastructure. The Russian company was forced to reduce shipments via the network in mid-June over delays in the repair of a Siemens-built high-pressure gas pumping turbine in Canada. Ottawa deliberately delayed the return of the turbine, which had undergone maintenance work, back to Europe, citing anti-Russian sanctions. To make matters worse, the Canadian side did not provide proper documentation for the turbine which resulted in further delays. In late July, Gazprom said that it had to stop the operation of another Siemens gas turbine engine for maintenance, which prompted western press to groundlessly claim that Russia was deliberately cutting gas supplies to Europe.,Berlin's energy policy is dictated from Washington for the detriment of the people of Germany, according to Dr. Christian Blex, an AfD lawmaker from the state parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia.,"The sanctions that the hypermoral German government in particular is repeatedly demanding are therefore particularly bad for our country," he said. "Any responsible government would base its actions on the well-being of its own people rather than acting as a vassal of the US.",Energy Crisis in EuropeGermany Should Immediately Launch Nord Stream 2, Bundestag Vice Speaker Says08:42 GMT,Biggest Problems Coming in Autumn, Winter,As of yet, the negative impact of sanctions is not particularly felt by ordinary Germans, according to the observers.,"At the moment we don't feel anything. Big bills are only announced and haven't yet reached the consumers," said Hoffmann. "But the announcements are that the energy prices will go up three to five fold, for many people [this will be] simply unpayable. That’s what is going to come in autumn. Ordinary people prepare by buying canned food or wood or gas stoves. What I also know is, for instance, that not only the ordinary people, but also the cities are preparing. The city of Dusseldorf is cutting down the heating of all gangways in their administration facilities. They are cutting the temperature down from 21 degrees centigrade to 19 or even 17, closing saunas and heating outside swimming pools. They are cutting down lights on public buildings.",While the people are not yet in panic, the German authorities are, according to Hoffmann.,"The government is talking about reducing the turnover tax for gas from 19% to 7% and they are trying to reduce the tax load for pensioners and other instruments to calm down the people," he noted. "But it's ridiculous what they plan when you look at the task of breaking a huge breakdown of the economy. It's only peanuts.",Meanwhile, businesses are expecting climbing power prices, and they are already thinking about how to compensate for that, according to him.,"The German economy looks to the future with serious concerns," echoed Blex. "In contrast to many citizens, business knows exactly what the energy crisis will bring. In public, however, criticism is heard only hesitantly. Fear of green politics and the media is still very great. As the suffering increases, the criticism will become louder… The biggest problems are coming up for the ordinary people with the inflation of food prices and extremely with the power costs. It will hit the poor, the low income class, those who will have to pay not 40, 50 or 60 euros per month for their power, but 200, 400 or even 500. That will make them not only hungry but upset.",WorldGerman Craftsmen Urge Chancellor Scholz to Scrap Sanctions Against Russia13:40 GMT,The AfD lawmaker expects a worsening recession with industrial production falling noticeably in Germany. He forecasts that short-time work will be reintroduced, adding that retailers are already noticing that more and more Germans are making significant savings. After all, the German national debt will continue to rise rapidly, according to him.,For his part, Hoffmann does not rule out that the people will eventually take to the streets en masse, stressing that the German government has already been preparing for this scenario.,"Our Ministry of Defense is preparing a special task force of 1900 soldiers, which have to keep peace within the country," he said. "This is an incredible decision. Our Bundeswehr is an army solely for defense against attacks from the outside. This basic rule is now broken, which means we are now in a totalitarian regime which has no respect for laws and our Constitution. They simply do what they want including censorship. And as one can see, they are preparing for a revolution.",Hoffmann cites German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as saying that the country's forces won't shoot at the people. However, the author expresses skepticism about Scholz' pledge: "It is like 'nobody wants to build a wall' in 1961 and then it was built some weeks later. So, the situation is disastrous," he concluded.。
二 | 【TechWeb】7月20日消息，近日，一场围绕中国AI公司月之暗面（Moonshot AI）旗下模型Kimi K3的言论风波，在海外科技圈持续发酵。事件的中心人物是刚刚上任仅两周的OpenAI“战略未来”主管迪恩·W·鲍尔（Dean W. Ball）。他在社交平台X上的一番先扬后抑、并带有强烈政治色彩的评论，不仅激起了技术社区的强烈反弹，更引发了关于中美AI竞争与监管干预的深层讨论。 该图片疑似使用了AI生成技术，请谨慎甄别 鲍尔在最初的帖子中，首先承认了Kimi K3的技术实力。他将其描述为“一个非常优秀的模型”，并表示其展现出的能力“不能简单归因于蒸馏”（指从大模型压缩知识的技术），在某些应用场景下，Kimi K3的表现已接近全球顶级水平。
三 | 然而，赞誉之声迅速转向了严厉的批评。鲍尔的核心论点在于，开放权重（Open-weight）的模型本质上是一种“减速主义（decelerationist）”行为。他声称，这种开源共享模式会削弱商业AI公司的投资回报，进而阻碍整个行业所需的巨额资本投入。
四 | 不仅如此，鲍尔还对中国允许如此强大的模型保持开源表示“惊讶”，并借机渲染了AI技术可能从实验室“逃逸”的安全风险。 献计“监管恐慌”引爆舆论 真正引爆舆论的，是鲍尔提出的应对建议。他公开提议，美国政府应采取更为激进的干预手段，通过制造“监管恐慌”来遏制中国AI模型的传播。具体而言，他建议美国政府发布模糊的、暗示“可能存在后门”的软性法规，以此在市场中制造不信任感，从而从商业层面打压Kimi K3等中国开源模型的国际竞争力。 此言一出，立刻在X等社交媒体上激起千层浪。 批评者们尖锐地指出，鲍尔的建议本质上是利用国家监管机器为像OpenAI这样的美国商业巨头扫清障碍，是典型的“监管捕获（regulatory capture）”行为。白宫AI顾问大卫·萨克斯（David Sacks）也公开对此提出了质疑，认为这种将商业竞争直接与政治监管挂钩的论调非常危险。 面对巨大的舆论压力，鲍尔于当地时间7月19日晚间紧急发帖澄清。他强调，自己加入OpenAI“不到两周”，此前的言论仅为个人对未来趋势的冷酷分析预测，并非代表OpenAI的政策倡议或立场。
五 | 他试图为自己的激烈措辞做出辩解，但争议并未因此完全平息。 开源与闭源路线之争的白热化 此次风波并非孤立事件。它本质上是中美两国在AI发展路径上“开源共享”与“闭源垄断”之争的又一次激烈碰撞。 月之暗面7月16日上线推出的Kimi K3模型拥有 2.8 万亿参数，在 Frontend Code Arena 全球AI大模型榜单中，Kimi K3以1679分超越Claude Fable 5，位居第一。其完整模型权重将于7月27日向社区开放。届时，全球开发者都可下载运行这套2.8万亿参数的国产大模型。 Kimi K3作为中国大模型领域的代表性产品之一，其开源策略被许多人视为对抗美国巨头技术壁垒的重要方式。而鲍尔的言论则暴露了美国部分科技精英和战略人士的焦虑，他们不仅担忧技术被赶超，更担忧开源模式从底层瓦解闭源商业模式的根基。 鲍尔虽以“个人观点”紧急降温，但这场由新上任高管点燃的争论事件也标志着，全球AI领域的竞争已不仅限于算力、算法和数据的比拼，更延伸到了地缘政治、监管政策和国际舆论的复杂博弈之中。
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